[1]李云秀,殷慧婷,周俐琼,等.剖宫产术后阴道分娩预测模型探讨[J].中国计划生育和妇产科,2020,(7):88-92.
　LI Yunxiu,YIN Huiting,ZHOU Liqiong,et al.Discussion on the prediction model of vaginal delivery after cesarean section[J].Chinese Journal of Family Planning & Gynecotokology,2020,(7):88-92.
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剖宫产术后阴道分娩预测模型探讨
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《中国计划生育和妇产科》[ISSN:1674-4020/CN:51-1708/R]

卷:
期数:
2020年7期
页码:
88-92
栏目:
妇科产科热点研究
出版日期:
2020-07-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Discussion on the prediction model of vaginal delivery after cesarean section
作者:
李云秀; 殷慧婷; 周俐琼; 陈晓燕*
深圳市龙华中心医院产科
Author(s):
LI Yunxiu; YIN Huiting; ZHOU Liqiong; CHEN Xiaoyan*
Department of Obstetrics,Shenzhen Longhua Central Hospital,Shenzhen Guangdong 511800,P.R.China
关键词:
剖宫产术后阴道分娩; 剖宫产; 预测模型
Keywords:
vaginal birth after cesarean delivery; cesarean; prediction model
分类号:
R 7143
摘要:
目的探讨建立预测剖宫产术后成功阴道分娩的模型。方法回顾性分析2014年1月至2017年12月深圳市龙华中心医院收治的1 219例剖宫产后阴道试产（trial of labor after cesarean,TOLAC）的病例资料，进行Logistic回归分析，确定影响TOLAC成功的因素，建立预测模型，计算受试者工作特性（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC），并验证。结果TOLAC成功率8811 %，阴道分娩史、宫颈Bishop评分≥6分是TOLAC成功的有利因素;而不利因素包括孕周≥40周、人流≥3次、体质量指数≥30 kg/m2、胎儿体重≥4 kg、妊娠期高血压疾病、引产;训练样本ROC曲线下面积083，考核样本ROC曲线下面积081，预测能力良好。结论预测模型可为分娩方式的决策作出指导。
Abstract:
Objective Explore the establishment of a model for predicting successful vaginal delivery after cesarean section.MethodsRetrospectively analyzed the case information of 1 219 cases of trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) from January 2014 to December 2017 in Shenzhen Longhua Central Hospital.Using Logistic regression analysis to determine the factors that affect the success of TOLAC, establish a predictive model, and calculate receiver operating characteristics (ROC ) area under the curve (AUC), and verify.ResultsThe success rate of TOLAC was 8811 %. The history of vaginal delivery and cervical Bishop score ≥6 were favorable factors for TOLAC success; unfavorable factors included gestational age ≥40 weeks, abortion ≥3 times, body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, fetal weight ≥4 kg,hypertension during pregnancy and induced labor; the area under the ROC curve of the retrospective sample was 083,and the area under the ROC curve of the prospective sample was 081 were with good predictive ability.ConclusionThe predictive model can guide the decision of delivery methods.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
广东省省级科技计划项目（项目编号：2017A020214007）
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-07-25