[1]王红钰*,马恩萍,涂国凤.稽留流产孕早期预测模型的构建与验证[J].中国计划生育和妇产科,2020,(5):43-47.
　WANG Hongyu*,MA Enping,TU Guofeng.Construction and verification of early prediction model of missed abortion[J].Chinese Journal of Family Planning & Gynecotokology,2020,(5):43-47.
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稽留流产孕早期预测模型的构建与验证
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《中国计划生育和妇产科》[ISSN:1674-4020/CN:51-1708/R]

卷:
期数:
2020年5期
页码:
43-47
栏目:
不良妊娠诊治专栏
出版日期:
2020-05-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction and verification of early prediction model of missed abortion
作者:
王红钰1*; 马恩萍2; 涂国凤3
1.064000河北唐山，中国建筑第二工程局职工医院妇产科；2.063000河北唐山，唐山市协和医院妇产科；3.064000河北唐山，中国建筑第二工程局职工医院手术室
Author(s):
WANG Hongyu1*; MA Enping2; TU Guofeng3
1.Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology,Staff Hospital of China Construction Second Engineering Bureau,Tangshan Hebei 064000,P.R.China;2.Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology,Tangshan Xiehe Hospital,Tangshan Hebei 063000,P.R.China;3.Operating Room,Staff Hospital of China Construction Second Engineering Bureau,Tangshan Hebei 064000,P.R.China
关键词:
稽留流产; 孕早期; 危险因素; 列线图
Keywords:
missed abortion;  early pregnancy;  risk factors;  nomogram
分类号:
R 71421
摘要:
目的构建稽留流产（missed abortion，MA）患者在孕早期流产危险因素列线图。方法纳入2017年2月至2019年10月因稽留流产于中国建筑第二工程局职工医院治疗的孕妇125例为研究组，随机纳入同时期正常孕妇126例为对照组，分析两组患者临床基本资料：年龄、环境因素、动物接触史、叶酸使用、文化程度、流产情况、疾病史、激素水平等。采用Logistic回归分析对孕早期发生稽留流产的危险因素进行分析，应用R软件建立孕早期稽留流产预测列线图，并进行验证。结果研究组孕妇年龄、睾酮（testosterone，T)水平高于对照组，而催乳素（prolactin，PRL）、雌二醇（estradiol，E2 ）、孕酮（progesterone,P）水平低于对照组，差异均有统计学意义（P＜0.05）；Logistic回归分析提示孕妇年龄（OR=1809，P=0003）、吸烟饮酒（OR=78120、P=0044）、职业暴露（OR=61238，P=0021）、T水平（OR=5432，P=0001）是孕早期发生MA的危险因素。PRL（OR=0376，P=0003）、E2（OR=0258，P=0016）、P（OR=0396，P=0005）是孕早期发生MA的保护因素。预测孕早期MA发生的相关危险因素的Cindex为0912（95 %CI：08740943）。结论列线图中孕妇年龄、环境因素、激素水平能较准确的预测孕早期发生MA的风险。
Abstract:
ObjectiveTo construct and verify the risk factor map of patients with missed abortion (MA) in early pregnancy. MethodsA total of 125 pregnant women who were treated in Staff Hospital of China Construction Second Engineering Bureau due to MA from February 2017 to October 2019 were included in the study group, while 126 normal pregnant women were randomly selected as the control group. The basic clinical data of the two groups of patients were analyzed: age, environmental factors, animal exposure history, folic acid use, education, abortion, disease history, hormone levels, etc.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors of early pregnancy MA, and R software was used to establish a line chart for the prediction of early pregnancy miscarriage and verified. ResultsThe age and testosterone(T)levels of pregnant women in the study group were significantly higher than those in the control group, while the prolactin(PRL), estradiol(E2), and progesterone(P) levels were lower than those in the control group（P<005）; Logistic regression analysis indicated that the age of pregnant women (OR=1809,P=0003), smoking alcohol consumption (OR=78120, P=0044), occupational exposure (OR=61238,P=0021), and T level (OR=5432,P=0001) were risk factors for the occurrence of MA in early pregnancy.PRL (OR=0376,P=0003), E2 (OR=0258, P=0016),P (OR=0396, P=0005) were the protective factors of MA in early pregnancy.The Cindex for predicting the risk factors of MA in the first trimester was 0912 (95 % CI:08740943).ConclusionThe nomogram constructed by the age, environmental factors, and hormone levels of pregnant women can more accurately predict the risk of MA in early pregnancy.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2020-05-25